U.S. Telco TV: Year-end 2006

We've got our number, and we'd like to hear your feedback! Based on our new research in IPTV: From Quadruple Play to Multiplay, we're estimating year-end U.S. telco TV deployments (including both IPTV and the QAM-based rollout from Verizon) at around 360,000 subscribers. Verizon obviously makes up the bulk of that figure, with more than 200,000 subscribers. It's followed by others, including Qwest, SureWest, Pioneer Telephone, D&E Communications, and others. Don't discount those little guys! Consolidated Communications reports a couple of quarters of solid growth - north of 20% - for its IPTV subs.

Much of the press focus for both AT&T and Verizon's television rollouts has been on the number of homes they expect to pass with their FTTN and FTTP deployments in the next few years. AT&T, for example, notes that it plans to "pass eight million living units" with its U-verse TV service by the end of 2007. In its first quarter earnings call, Verizon officials indicated that they believe that year-end 2007 availability of FiOS TV will be around five million households up from 2.4 million at the end of 2006.

Having the technology in place to deploy the television services is an important part of the equation, but having the regulatory authority to sell television services in specific markets - franchising authority - is another key component. As of this week, AT&T confirmed that it has agreements with 28 municipalities and "broad video reform" in 11 states. For its part, Verizon confirmed that it had secured 651 local video franchises covering approximately 7.8 million households.

We'd love to hear your thoughts - does our Telco/IPTV subscriber number sound on target? Feel free to e-mail me back at scherf@parksassociates.com.